{"id":2592,"date":"2020-09-09T09:43:33","date_gmt":"2020-09-09T09:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/?p=2592"},"modified":"2020-09-09T09:45:02","modified_gmt":"2020-09-09T09:45:02","slug":"improved-ecmwf-forecasts-of-direct-normal-irradiance-a-tool-for-better-operational-strategies-in-concentrating-solar-power-plants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/2020\/09\/09\/improved-ecmwf-forecasts-of-direct-normal-irradiance-a-tool-for-better-operational-strategies-in-concentrating-solar-power-plants\/","title":{"rendered":"Improved ECMWF forecasts of direct normal irradiance: A tool for better operational strategies in concentrating solar power plants"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><span class=\"content\"><span class=\"text given-name\">Francisco M. <\/span><span class=\"text surname\">Lopes, <\/span><\/span><span class=\"content\"><span class=\"text given-name\">Ricardo <\/span><span class=\"text surname\">Concei\u00e7\u00e3o, <\/span><\/span><span class=\"content\"><span class=\"text given-name\">Hugo G. <\/span><span class=\"text surname\">Silva, <\/span><\/span><span class=\"content\"><span class=\"text given-name\">Rui <\/span><span class=\"text surname\">Salgado, <\/span><\/span><span class=\"content\"><span class=\"text given-name\">Manuel <\/span><span class=\"text surname\">Collares-Pereira<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">To contribute for improved operational strategies of concentrating solar power plants with accurate forecasts of direct normal irradiance, this work describes the use of several post-processing methods on numerical weather prediction. Focus is given to a multivariate regression model that uses measured irradiance values from previous hours to improve next-hour predictions, which can be used to refine daily strategies based on day-ahead predictions. Short-term forecasts provided by the Integrated Forecasting System, the global model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are used together with measurements in southern Portugal. As a nowcasting tool, the proposed regression model significantly improves hourly predictions with a skill score of \u22480.84 (i.e. an increase of \u224827.29% towards the original hourly forecasts). Using previous-day measured availability to improve next-day forecasts, the model shows a skill score of \u22480.78 (i.e. an increase of \u22486% towards the original forecasts), being further improved if larger sets of data are used. Through a power plant simulator (i.e. the System Advisor Model), a preliminary economic analysis shows that using improved hourly predictions of electrical energy allows to enhance a power plant&#8217;s profit in \u22480.44\u202fM\u20ac\/year, as compared with the original forecasts. Operational strategies are proposed accordingly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0960148120313859\">here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Francisco M. Lopes, Ricardo Concei\u00e7\u00e3o, Hugo G. Silva, Rui Salgado, Manuel Collares-Pereira To contribute for improved operational strategies of concentrating solar power plants with accurate forecasts of direct normal irradiance, this work describes the use of several post-processing methods on numerical weather prediction. Focus is given to a multivariate regression model that uses measured irradiance [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[428,375,92,429,427,426],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2592"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2592"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2592\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2595,"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2592\/revisions\/2595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icterra.pt\/legacy\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}